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Western officials have been pushing for a diplomatic solution they hope will de-escalate tensions - specifically, the full implementation of the Minsk agreements, a ceasefire protocol signed by Ukraine and Russia in 2015.
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“Generally speaking, I think the aim here is to make clear, ‘I’m willing to take this big risk and use force and I’m betting that you are unwilling to engage with me and have a loss of life.’ “ “If you threaten force, and you keep your force in the field, and the interventions from the West, politically and militarily, are mild or nonexistent, that emboldens you,” that official said. The US and its allies in Europe and NATO have warned Russia of severe economic sanctions should it move to invade Ukraine.īut Western officials are reluctant to get drawn into a direct military conflict with Russia, which Moscow understands, the senior Western intelligence official said. The US is planning to send more anti-tank weapons like Javelin missiles, but has for now backed off of providing Ukraine with surface-to-air missiles, like Stingers, which Russia would view as provocative, sources said. Ukraine will commission new military patrol boats, supplied by the US, in the coming days to bolster its missions in the Black Sea, according to two people familiar with the matter. The US is still deliberating what kind of military aide to send to Ukraine in the face of the Russian buildup. “So if NATO still refuses to discuss this theme or the guarantees or ideas put forward by the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, of course we will take measures to ensure that our security, our sovereignty and our territorial integrity does not depend on anyone else,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday. Russia has denied in recent days that it has any plans to attack Ukraine but has also demanded security guarantees from the West, such as a pledge that it won’t allow Ukraine to join NATO. “We must prepare for all contingencies.”Ī senior Western intelligence official similarly said Russia is trying to “set the stage to be ready to conduct a fairly large-scale operation” into Ukraine in an effort to coerce Kiev away from its drift into the Western European and NATO orbit.
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We do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so on short order should he so decide,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Latvia on Wednesday. “We don’t know whether President Putin has made the decision to invade. But the apparent military readiness has raised alarms among Western officials, who say Russia is positioning itself to be able to launch an attack on very short notice. It is still unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to invade or whether the buildup is a game of brinkmanship to get concessions from the West, officials said.
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Mike Quigley of Illinois, who sits on the House Intelligence Committee, told CNN that he believes Russia is positioned to invade “when they want,” adding that “Russia’s capabilities would be equivalent to a modern-day blitzkrieg.”Ī senior administration official told CNN that the US has “seen additional Russia troops added to the border region in recent days,” but the source declined to detail how many troops.